Rampant Heatwaves Are A Growing Threat To Caribbean Food Security

Stories about food & agriculture through the lens of climate change by Daphne Ewing-Chow for Forbes

Record-breaking heat that has been beating down on the Caribbean for the past few months poses a grave threat to regional food security. Unprecedented temperatures are impacting soil and water, worker productivity and income, food prices and trade— with consequences for the availability, accessibility and affordability of major crops, fish stocks, livestock and even imported food.

Driven by climate change, a strong El Niño climate pattern and a much warmer than usual tropical north Atlantic, heat waves—temperatures that exceed the 90th percentile of the region’s historical range— have affected both marine and terrestrial food sources.

“Through successive COPs [United Nations Climate Change Conferences] we have heard repeated warnings about the imperative of limiting global temperatures to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels,” says Dr. Didacus Jules, Director General of the Organization of Eastern European States (OECS).

Global warming is creating hell on earth for Small Island Developing States (SIDS)— a rapid onslaught apocalypse.”

The Caribbean Regional Climate Center reported record-breaking temperatures across the region between May and August 2023, with forecasts of continued heat stress in the region through October, with ongoing increasing temperatures, humidity and frequency of heatwaves expected to rival prior records. Higher than normal temperatures are forcasted to extend into 2024, and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warns that these weather extremes will become the “new norm.”

Between the months of June and August, the mean temperature anomaly in Barbados was 0.8 degrees Celsius higher than normal, with 87 days of heat that Climate Central says was at least three times more likely to have been caused by climate change. In Jamaica, the mean temperature anomaly was 1.3 degrees Celsius higher than normal, with 89 days in which the intense temperature was attributable to climate change.

The latest Economy and Development Report (RED) issued by the Development Bank of Latin America and the Caribbean (CAF) launched in September predicts that “average temperatures will continue to rise, rainfall patterns will undergo increasing disruptions, and many parts of the region will become drier.”

According to Pablo Brassilio, CAF principal economist, aridity has been increasing considerably in the region and drought is expected to double. If emissions continue at this rate, 80% of land in the region will be dry by 2100.

Rising temperatures have already reduced yields and are expected to play a role in increased pests and diseases, changed patterns of erosion and accretion, weed proliferation, declines in labor productivity, crop quality and long-term production, leading to crop failures as well as stunted growth, compromised health and large-scale losses of livestock and poultry. And for a water insecure region that depends almost entirely on rainfall for irrigation— with 70% of all water usage going towards agriculture— drier than average conditions can multiply the negative impacts of persistently high temperatures.

In Barbados and Jamaica, for example, 88% of all crops rely on rainwater, while in St. Vincent, Trinidad & Tobago and in St. Lucia, crop irrigation depends almost entirely on rainwater.

In St. Vincent, where farmers are still reeling from the destruction caused by the catastrophic volcanic eruption of La Soufrière in 2020, a long-term drought has reduced yields, and created total crop failure in some instances. Soil nutrients and irrigation systems have been experiencing significant pressure, with worrisome implications for the future.

“We produce most of our vegetables in the open field as opposed to shade houses,” says Saboto Caesar, St. Vincent and the Grenadines’ Agriculture Minister. “The intense heat over the past weeks is having a negative impact on vegetable production just ahead of the Christmas period which is categorized as a season of ery high demand for vegetables. It is becoming more challenging in this period of climate change to ensure that food is available, accessible, and affordable.”

Reports from Antigua & Barbuda refer to an inability to produce feed for livestock due to insufficient precipitation, while the Jamaican Agricultural Society has reported that many small poultry farmers have recorded significant losses, raising an alarm for a potential chicken shortage for the Christmas season.

Diana Francis of The Inter-American Institute for Cooperation on Agriculture (IICA) in Trinidad & Tobago reports that, “In the past few weeks, there have been several reports of death among poultry in Trinidad; crops in fields wilting from heat from above and below; and farm workers being cautioned to wear sunscreen and drink water in response to Met Office warnings about the continuing heat wave.”

In Trinidad, Satyananad Maharaj, Head of the Aranguez United Farmers Association says that local farmers have been contending with increases in costs and pests and reduced irrigation water and warns that heat-sensitive produce such as tomatoes, cauliflower and sweet peppers might soon be in short supply.

“If this type of weather continues, farmers may decide to save their money rather than plant and lose their labor and capital,” he says.

Elsewhere in Trinidad, farmer Alpha Sennon, says that excessive heat and little rainfall has resulted in a decline in his dasheen bush production, while Barbadian farmer John Jones says that crop selection has been affected, as some crops such as leafy greens are unable to grow adequately in the excessive heat.

“The heat affects plants, animals and humans tremendously,” says Sennon, who is also Founder and CEO of WHYFARM, a Trinidad-based nonprofit organization specializing in agricultural educational entertainment.

“The heat reduces soil water retention, preventing crop growth, which affects production; workers get dehydrated and tired, which affects production and incomes; animals need more mechanical and electrical components for their daily well-being, which affects production and costs; and after crops have been harvested, they tend to start deteriorating before they reach the grocery shelf, creating added losses, which in turn affect prices.”

The Barbados Agricultural Society (BAS) indicates that the heat wave is posing a major threat to local agricultural yields and prices. With impacts extending out to sea. At one point, local fish vendors were forced to sell 10-packs of flying fish as high as $17 and $22 US dollars to turn a profit on waning stocks of Barbados’ national fish, which scientists say are migrating to cooler waters.

“As our temperature records unprecedented levels of heat, water scarcity and drought are impacting food security, and ocean warming is resulting in the bleaching of coral reefs, affecting fisheries,” says the OECS Director General.

This past summer, regional waters warmed up to 90 degrees Fahrenheit— two degrees higher than the long-term average, and in late August, the Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) warned that ocean temperatures would remain well above average for at least another three months, posing a major threat to coral reefs and marine life.

The extreme conditions have extended far beyond the waters of the import-dependent region, creating similarly adverse consequences to the food systems of trade partners and the world’s major food supplying countries.

For countries of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM)— which import approximately three-quarters of what they eat— climate-related pressures on food systems elsewhere in the world, including in the United States, the Caribbean’s closest trade partner, have had spillover effects on regional food prices.

According to the Washington D.C.-based National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the past three months were the hottest on its 174-year record. In addition to climate impacts on crop yields and worker productivity, heat waves have created increased insurance premiums for U.S. food producers. Persistent drought has also affected transport on shipping routes, due to lower water levels in areas such as the Panama Canal, requiring shippers to lighten their vessel loads.

Outside of the Americas, severe droughts experienced by Asia’s major food producing countries have pushed rice prices to their highest levels in well over a decade, while droughts in the Mediterranean have caused a decline in global stocks of olive oil, causing prices to skyrocket by more than 130% in the past year.

Barclays reports that severe weather has been the main disrupter of food prices in recent times.

Persistent droughts “could lead to regional shortfalls and, with poor countries unable to afford higher prices, food security issues,” said Joseph Glauber, a senior research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute, in an interview with the New York Times.

Severe and persistent heat waves pose an added threat to Caribbean populations in the context of rising prices and supply shocks associated with COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine, coupled with pre-existing socio-economic and environmental challenges associated with poverty, limited land availability, water insecurity, and the inter-related threats of sea level rise, tropical cyclones, and floods.

By April 2023, Caribbean food inflation rose by as much as 67% in Suriname, 17% in Trinidad & Tobago, 11% in Jamaica, 6.9% in Guyana, and 4.3% in Barbados.

The Caribbean food security and livelihoods survey conducted by the World Food Programme (WFP) and the CARICOM Secretariat reveals that 98% of respondents felt the impact of high food prices in the three months leading up to May 2023, and 42% reported being affected by climate-related hazards during the prior month.

The survey results reveal that by May 2023 some 3.7 million people, or 52% of the English-speaking Caribbean, was already food insecure.

“Extreme heat carries enormous implications for society’s most vulnerable and is just one of the latest manifestations of the climate crisis and its impact on the Caribbean,” says Regis Chapman, Representative and Country Director of the WFP Caribbean Multi-Country Office.

“We’re also seeing more frequent and severe storms and increasing frequency of droughts. The inherent risk in the Caribbean has a significant impact on those employed in agriculture, negatively impacting the capacity of the region to reduce its reliance on imported food. National systems are therefore so important, particularly when coordinated across sectors for early warning, anticipatory action and for response to these climatic shocks. This is why the World Food Programme works with disaster management, social protection, and food systems in the Caribbean, to ensure that vulnerable people, including small holder farmers, are supported.”

Extreme heat and drought have real implications for labor productivity, particularly among smallholder farmers who comprise up to 10% of the labor force in countries such as St. Vincent and the Grenadines and St. Lucia, and 15% of the labor force in Jamaica and Guyana.

An analysis of the circumstances of more than half a million workers conducted by Oxford University researcher, Dr. Carolin Kroeger reveals that the “number of hot days in the last week is associated with significantly higher levels of moderate-to-severe food insecurity.”

And households that eat what they produce are the most vulnerable.

According to Kroeger, “Heat-related physical strain and health problems limit peoples’ ability to work and earn an income, thus limiting their ability to afford to buy food.”

For countries in the region, excessive heat threatens to derail development objectives and progress towards the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.

Climate adaptation and other measures are required to preserve the achievements of CARICOM’s 25 by 2025 initiative, which has already made significant progress on the path to reducing CARICOM’s food import bill by 25% in the lead up to 2025.

Heat-related setbacks impact both productivity and the price of food at home and for export.

Financing and solutions must be sensitive to the needs of climate vulnerable countries and must be focused more on adaptation, and not just mitigation.

This can be tricky given that the region’s economically vulnerable countries are forced to depend on the largest producers of greenhouse gases for adaptation finance. St. Kitts & Nevis, for example, has indicated that its financing needs for climate adaptation amount to some $127 million, while those of Guyana amount to $1.6 billion, and $2 billion for Trinidad & Tobago.

Other solutions come in the form of technical support. At the UN Climate Ambition Summit on September 22^nd 2023 in New York, the UN Development Programme (UNDP) announced a 6 year, $157 million partnership to establish Early Warning Systems in some of the world’s most climate vulnerable countries— among them, Antigua and Barbuda.

According to World Meteorological Organization Secretary-General, Professor Petteri Taalas, “Floods, fires, heatwaves, and drought have all wreaked devastation with people’s lives and livelihoods in recent weeks. Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of these extreme events. It is therefore vital that climate adaptation policies and actions embrace multi-hazard Early Warning Systems to protect people and property.”

Advances in irrigation are also paramount to the future of the water intensive agriculture sector, particularly in the context of one of the most water stressed regions in the world.

In mid-September, Caribbean agriculture ministers and UN officials met in Jamaica for the High-level Ministerial Meeting for Caribbean Ministers of Agriculture and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations to discuss regional priority project areas including advanced technological applications in irrigation.

“Jamaica has gone through one of its driest times ever; the reality is that it is also true for the rest of the region. The climate has changed, we are seeing different weather patterns; we are seeing higher temperatures, and the access to water has become more important than ever before in our history,” said Floyd Green, Jamaica’s Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Mining, who chaired the meeting.

In relation to water shortages, St. Vincent, Agriculture Minister Saboto Cesar has advised that the Government of St. Vincent and the Grenadines through the Ministry of Agriculture has distributed water tanks and assisted scores of small farmers with water for livestock to cope with heat waves and droughts.

“Our Ministry will continue to create an enabling environment for our farmers to grapple with the vagaries of climate change; it will not be easy and strategic technological modifications to current agro-production systems will be central to our success.”

A variety of initiatives and solutions— many of which have been implemented with various degrees of success over the past two decades, have played an important role in building some degree of resilience.

“As the region continues to experience these high levels of unprecedented heat levels, it is important to employ climate resilience practices and climate smart agriculture techniques— with a strong emphasis on water management— so as to boost the region’s food security,” says Shaun Baugh, Programme Manager of Agricultural Development with the CARICOM Secretariat.

Climate smart agriculture and water management will surely be hot topics on the agenda of the upcoming 17th Caribbean Week of Agriculture in October 2023 and at the 38th Session of the Regional Conference for Latin America and the Caribbean (LARC 38) in March 2024.

But beyond the conference halls and beneath superficial layers of academic discourse— at a purely grassroots level— many of the region’s farmers and fishers say that the scientific jargon lacks relatability.

“We have to rethink the way we do agriculture,” says Alpha Sennon. “Farmers have been getting the warnings about the climate changing but they haven’t been adapting to the changes… Climate smart agriculture practices were once something nice to talk about in theory, but now the changes have to be made in real life in order for us to survive.”